S · S · Dossier steps: Sort evidence and Scenarios
Think through the what-ifs before you move
A detective doesn't arrest the first suspect who looks guilty. They list every suspect and rule them out one by one. It takes a few extra minutes, and it can save you months.
Start with the evidence board
Before you think about outcomes, sort what you have into three piles.
| Pile | What goes in it | Example: "Should I raise prices?" |
|---|---|---|
| Facts | Things you can show with records | Costs rose 12% this year. Two clients asked about rates last month. |
| Assumptions | Things you believe but haven't tested | "Most clients will leave if I raise prices." |
| Guesses | Hunches with no support yet | "My competitor is about to cut prices." |
Run three scenarios
For every real option, write a best case, a worst case and a most likely case. Keep each one to a sentence or two. The worst case matters most: if you can survive it, the decision is safer than it feels. If you can't, you need a plan B before you start.
Ask "and then what?"
First-order thinking stops at the immediate result. Second-order thinking keeps going. Cutting prices brings more customers. And then what? You have more work at lower margin. And then what? You need to hire sooner, and your cash gets tighter. One extra question often changes the answer.
Hold a premortem
Psychologist Gary Klein's premortem flips the usual review. Imagine it's a year from now and the decision failed badly. Write down why it failed. People find risks this way that they'd never name when asked "what could go wrong?", because the failure is treated as already true.
Keep more than one suspect
Investigators call it tunnel vision: locking onto one theory and only noticing clues that fit. Owners do the same with plans they like. For any decision, keep at least two real alternatives on the board, including "do nothing," until the evidence rules them out.
Where this fits in the Dossier
This page covers the two S steps of the Dossier Method: Sort the evidence, then run the Scenarios. Class II and Class III decisions use both. Your dossier records your shakiest assumption, three scenarios and the top premortem reason.