E · R · Dossier steps: Execute and Review
Some decisions have no good option, only less bad ones. The goal is not to feel sure. The goal is a clear reason you can stand behind later. You can do hard things, and this page shows you how to do them well.
In his 2015 letter to shareholders, Jeff Bezos split decisions into two types. One-way doors are hard or impossible to undo, so they deserve slow, careful thought. Two-way doors can be reversed if they don't work, so make them quickly and learn. Many owners treat every decision like a one-way door and stall the whole company.
Bezos also wrote that most decisions should be made with about 70% of the information you wish you had. Waiting for 90% usually means you're too slow. The what-if work is how you make 70% feel safe enough to act.
For each big call, record the date, what you chose, why, what you expected to happen, and when you'll review it. In the Dossier Method that record is the dossier itself: E is making the call and setting tripwires, and R is grading it later on the Decision Quality Grid. Judge the reasoning with what you knew then, not only the outcome. Good decisions sometimes have bad luck.
A tripwire is a signal you choose in advance that forces you to rethink. "If the new service hasn't covered its costs by month four, we shut it down." Decide the tripwire while you're calm, so you don't have to argue with your own sunk costs later.
A fictional example
Tom owns two print and sign shops. The original location is profitable. The second, opened three years ago across town, has lost money in 30 of its 36 months. It has three employees, one of them Tom's nephew. Every quarter Tom tells himself it just needs more time.
He finally ran the numbers properly. The second shop lost an average of $3,200 a month, and the first shop's profits had been quietly covering it. The lease came up for renewal in four months with a five-year term. That made it a one-way door: renew, and he was locked in until well past his planned retirement.
The sunk cost was loud in his head: "We've put $180,000 into that store." But that money was gone whether he stayed or not. The real question was only about the future: would the next five years at the second location be worth more than the alternatives?
He gathered evidence fast, because the lease deadline gave him about 70% of what he wished he knew. Most of the second shop's best customers would drive to the first location, since they ordered online anyway. The first shop had room for two more people.
Tom decided not to renew. He offered two of the three employees, including his nephew, jobs at the main shop, and gave the third two months' notice and a strong reference. He set a tripwire: if more than a quarter of the second shop's regular customers stopped ordering within six months, he'd reconsider a smaller satellite location. Six months later, the business was more profitable than it had been in three years.
Date: March 3. Decision: don't renew the second location lease. Why: lost money in 30 of 36 months; customers can be served from the main shop. Expected result: higher total profit within six months. Tripwire: more than 25% of regular customers stop ordering. Review: September 3.
| Mistake | Fix |
|---|---|
| Letting money already spent keep a bad decision alive | Ask: "If I were starting fresh today, would I choose this?" If not, the past investment isn't a reason to stay. |
| Waiting for a sign that makes the decision feel easy | Hard calls rarely feel easy. Set a decision date and keep it. |
| Making a two-way decision slowly | Reversible choices deserve speed. Try it, measure, adjust. |
| Letting personal relationships decide business questions | Decide on business grounds first, then use the relationship to deliver it with care. |